US Q1 GDP Forecast at 3.3% by Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs Projects 3.3% Q1 GDP Growth

Goldman Sachs has maintained its first-quarter GDP tracking estimate at a 3.3% quarter-over-quarter annualized rate. This projection follows the release of several key economic indicators for the United States, providing a clearer picture of economic activity.

Overview of Economic Indicators

The US trade deficit narrowed more than anticipated in January, largely due to an increase in gold exports, which are excluded from official GDP calculations. In the housing sector, starts unexpectedly rose by 7.2%, surpassing forecasts that had predicted a decline.

Meanwhile, initial jobless claims saw a slight decrease, aligning with market expectations and remaining below the average levels observed in the latter half of 2025, according to the report.

Impact on the Economic Forecast

The 3.3% GDP estimate incorporates a negative drag from rising oil prices in March. However, this impact is partially offset by stronger-than-expected data from the trade and housing starts reports, which improved upon the firm's previous assumptions.

Conclusion

The latest data presents a resilient economic picture, leading Goldman Sachs to hold its Q1 GDP forecast steady. The interplay between inflationary pressures, such as oil prices, and positive domestic activity in housing will be crucial for future economic assessments.

FAQ

Q: What is Goldman Sachs' current Q1 GDP estimate for the US?
A: The estimate stands at 3.3% on a quarter-over-quarter annualized basis.

Q: Which factors supported this GDP forecast?
A: A narrowing trade deficit and a 7.2% increase in housing starts helped offset the negative impact of higher oil prices.

Source: Investing.com