Macau Gaming Revenue Rises But Stifel Cuts 2026 Forecast

Stifel Lowers Macau's 2026 Gaming Revenue Outlook

Stifel has adjusted its 2026 growth forecast for Macau's gaming revenue downward to a range of 5% to 9%. This revision follows April's gross gaming revenues of 19.89 billion patacas, which, despite a 5.5% year-over-year increase, fell short of consensus estimates and remained 15.7% below pre-pandemic 2019 levels.

April Revenue Performance and Visitor Trends

Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau reported that April revenues declined 12% on a monthly basis. While visitation to the region has surpassed 2019 figures, the recovery is uneven. The VIP and premium mass segments show signs of return, with operators increasing marketing efforts. However, the base mass business segment continues to lag, and overall spending per visitor tracks below historical norms.

Revised Forecasts and Market Valuation

The revised forecast from Stifel aligns more closely with the current market consensus, positioning projected 2026 revenues at approximately 9% below 2019 levels at the midpoint. For the immediate future, Stifel anticipates the May Day Holiday will drive strong visitation and projects a 6% to 10% increase in May's total gaming revenues. Despite the mixed recovery signals, Macau-centric stocks continue to trade at discounts to their long-term valuation metrics.

Future Projections and Key Factors

The outlook for Macau's gaming sector hinges on the recovery of the mass market segment and an increase in per-visitor spending. While the VIP segment is partially recovering, its volumes remain at around 30% of 2019 levels. Future growth will depend on operators' ability to convert high visitation numbers into higher gaming revenue across all customer segments.

FAQ

Q: Why did Stifel lower its forecast for Macau's gaming revenue?
A: Despite strong visitor numbers, mass gambling spend per visitor remains well below historical levels, and the base mass segment is lagging in recovery.

Q: What was Macau's gross gaming revenue in April?
A: April's gross gaming revenue was 19.89 billion patacas, a 5.5% increase year-over-year but 15.7% below 2019 levels.

Source: Investing.com