Goldman Ups Brent Forecast to $76 on Hormuz Risks

Goldman Sachs Adjusts Oil Price Projections

Goldman Sachs has increased its average price forecast for Q2 2026 Brent crude oil to $76 per barrel, a $10 raise. The bank also lifted its West Texas Intermediate WTI forecast by $9 to $71 per barrel, citing potential supply disruptions.

Hormuz Strait Tensions Drive Forecast

The updated forecast is based on the assumption of reduced oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global energy chokepoint. The bank anticipates this will lead to a significant decline in OECD inventories and Middle East oil production in March.

Potential for Higher Prices and Volatility

The investment bank notes that its forecasts are heavily skewed to the upside. A prolonged disruption could push Brent prices toward $100 per barrel to curb demand. Conversely, a faster-than-expected normalization of oil flows presents a downside risk to prices.

Outlook and Key Factors

Market participants will closely monitor geopolitical developments affecting the Strait of Hormuz. The bank's long-term forecasts for late 2026 and 2027 have also been revised, indicating a complex outlook for the global oil market.

FAQ

Q: Why did Goldman Sachs raise its oil price forecast?

A: The forecast was raised due to anticipated supply disruptions from reduced oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, which is expected to lower inventories.

Q: What is the new Brent crude forecast for Q2 2026?

A: The revised forecast for Q2 2026 Brent crude is $76 per barrel.

Source: Investing.com