Goldman Lowers Oil Price Forecast Amid US-Iran Ceasefire

Goldman Sachs Revises Oil Price Projections

Goldman Sachs has adjusted its second-quarter 2026 price forecasts for crude oil, citing recent geopolitical developments. The investment bank lowered its projection for Brent crude to $90 per barrel from a previous $99. The forecast for West Texas Intermediate WTI was also trimmed to $87 per barrel from $91.

Geopolitical Context and Market Response

The revision follows a two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran. This development is anticipated to reduce the geopolitical risk premium and improve oil flows through the crucial Strait of Hormuz. In response, Brent crude prices experienced a significant weekly decline, although some volatility remains due to uncertainties surrounding the ceasefire's stability.

Broader Energy Market Impact

While the near-term forecast was lowered, Goldman Sachs maintained its price projections for the third and fourth quarters. The bank also adjusted its European benchmark TTF gas price forecast for the second quarter, reducing it to 50 euros per megawatt-hour from 70 euros, assuming a gradual normalization of LNG flows.

Outlook and Key Risks

Goldman Sachs stated that risks to its price forecasts remain skewed to the upside. A failure of the ceasefire leading to persistent production losses could drive Brent prices significantly higher, potentially nearing $115 per barrel in the fourth quarter under a severe disruption scenario.

FAQ

Q: Why did Goldman Sachs lower its oil price forecast?
A: The forecast was lowered due to a two-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, which is expected to reduce supply risks and the geopolitical risk premium.

Q: What are the new Q2 2026 price targets for Brent and WTI?
A: The new forecast is $90 per barrel for Brent and $87 per barrel for WTI.

Source: Investing.com