Goldman Sachs Raises 2026 Oil Price Forecast

Key Forecast Adjustments

Goldman Sachs has increased its Q4 2026 price forecasts for Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil by $6, setting new targets at $60 and $56 per barrel respectively. This upward revision is primarily driven by lower-than-anticipated inventory levels in OECD countries.

Broader Market Outlook

Despite the price adjustment, the bank maintains its projection of a 2.3 million barrels per day supply surplus for 2026. This outlook assumes no major supply disruptions related to Iran or other geopolitical events. For the full year 2026, the average price forecast is now $64 for Brent and $60 for WTI.

Long-Term Projections and Risks

Looking further ahead, Goldman anticipates Brent and WTI will average $65 and $61 respectively in 2027, rising to $70 and $66 by the year's end due to solid demand. However, the bank notes downside risks of $5 for Brent if potential sanctions relief for Iran or Russia accelerates stock builds.

Summary

Goldman Sachs' updated forecast points to a market balancing tighter near-term inventories against a long-term supply surplus. The price trajectory remains highly sensitive to geopolitical factors and future OPEC+ production policies.

FAQ

Q: Why did Goldman Sachs raise its 2026 oil price forecast?
A: The primary reason was lower observed inventory levels in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD countries.

Q: What is the new Q4 2026 forecast for Brent crude?
A: The new forecast for Brent crude for the fourth quarter of 2026 is $60 per barrel.

Source: Investing.com