Restaurant Sector: Gordon Haskett Reviews Mixed 2026 Estimates

Gordon Haskett Reports Mixed 2026 Restaurant Sector Estimates

Gordon Haskett's review of calendar 2026 Street estimates for over 20 restaurant companies shows a mixed picture post-second-quarter earnings. Analyzing same-store sales, EPS, EBITDA, and revenue, 12 of 22 companies saw estimates hold or increase (nine upward revisions). However, 10 companies faced downward adjustments for 2026 projections.

Company Performance and Market Overview

The Cheesecake Factory, Bloomin’ Brands, BJ’s Restaurants, and Starbucks received upward revisions across all 2026 metrics. Conversely, Papa Johns, Wendy’s, Jack in the Box, Portillo’s, Wingstop, and Yum! Brands faced broad downward revisions. Over 12 months, the restaurant sector gained 6%, trailing the S&P 500's 18%. Casual dining outperformed; fast-casual and pizza segments underperformed.

Correlation and Undervalued Stocks

Same-store sales estimate revisions showed the strongest correlation with share price movements at 0.68 over 12 months, slightly above the 0.67 average for all metrics. Gordon Haskett highlighted Dutch Bros, Domino’s Pizza, and Wingstop for notable divergence between revision trends and share price, identifying them as potentially undervalued.

Sector Outlook

The restaurant sector presents a polarized outlook. Some companies show positive forward momentum, while others face headwinds. Same-store sales remain a critical indicator.

FAQ

Q: Which companies saw all upward revisions for 2026 estimates after Q2?
A: The Cheesecake Factory, Bloomin’ Brands, BJ’s Restaurants, and Starbucks.

Q: What metric had the strongest correlation with restaurant stock share price moves?
A: Same-store sales estimates.

Q: Which companies does Gordon Haskett consider undervalued?
A: Dutch Bros, Domino’s Pizza, and Wingstop.

Source: Investing.com