Jefferies Ups 2026 Commodity Inflation Forecast to 2.1%

TrustFinance Global Insights

5월 12, 2026

2 min read

Jefferies Ups 2026 Commodity Inflation Forecast to 2.1%

## Forecast Revision Overview Jefferies has increased its 2026 commodity inflation forecast to 2.1% year-over-year, a significant 90 basis point rise from its previous projection, citing persistent geopolitical disruptions. ## Geopolitical Drivers The updated outlook stems from ongoing Middle East tensions, which have reduced commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to approximately 5% of normal levels. This has led to elevated freight, rerouting, and insurance costs across multiple commodity categories. ## Market and Sector Impact Fertilizers, grains, and oilseeds are heavily affected. For the second half of 2026, significant price increases are expected for nonfat dry milk up 45% and soybean oil up 40%. The firm’s outlook for the first half of 2027 also indicates a 1.7% increase in input costs. ### Outlook Summary With ceasefire negotiations stalled, the prospect for near-term resolution is limited. This suggests continued inflationary pressure on commodities and potential impacts on crop yields and corporate procurement costs for the foreseeable future. #### FAQ **Q:** What is the main reason for the revised forecast? **A:** The primary driver is severe disruption to commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz due to Middle East tensions, which has significantly increased logistics costs. **Q:** Which commodities are expected to see the largest price increases? **A:** Projections for the second half of 2026 show nonfat dry milk increasing by 45%, soybean oil by 40%, and hard red wheat by 34%. Source: [Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/jefferies-raises-2026-commodity-inflation-forecast-on-middle-east-tensions-93CH-4679349)