EU Eases 2035 Car Ban, EV Sales Projections Vary

T&E Report: EU's New 2035 Plan Weakens EV Transition

A report from the clean transport group Transport & Environment (T&E) indicates the European Union's revised 2035 emissions targets will permit the continued sale of combustion-engine vehicles. The proposal, which mandates a 90% CO2 reduction instead of a full ban, could result in electric vehicles (EVs) comprising 85% of new car sales, though this figure could drop to 50%.

Overview of the Situation

Following pressure from automakers, the European Commission proposed a significant policy shift away from a complete phase-out of new internal combustion engine (ICE) cars and vans. The new plan calls for a 90% cut in CO2 emissions from 2021 levels by 2035. The Commission stated this change would save vehicle makers 2.1 billion euros over three years, freeing up resources for innovation in new electric models.

Impact on the Auto Market and Emissions

According to T&E's analysis, the revised rules create a wide range of outcomes. Manufacturers could sell between 5% and 50% of non-battery electric vehicles after 2035, depending on the efficiency of the models sold. The advocacy group suggests a 15% share for a mix of combustion and plug-in hybrid vehicles is the most probable scenario.

This policy relaxation is projected to result in car CO2 emissions being 10% higher between 2025 and 2050 compared to the original, stricter regulations. T&E also warns of a risk that the rules could be weakened further during upcoming debates.

Summary

The future of the EU's automotive landscape from 2035 remains uncertain. The proposed changes are not final and must be approved by both the European Parliament and the Council of EU governments. The final legislation will be critical in determining the speed of the EV transition and the long-term role of combustion-engine technology in the European market.

FAQ

Q: What is the main change in the EU's 2035 car policy?
A: The proposal shifted from a 100% ban on new combustion engine cars to a 90% reduction in CO2 emissions, allowing some non-EVs to be sold after 2035.

Q: What is the projected impact on EV sales?
A: T&E projects EV sales could make up 85% of new cars from 2035, but this share could fall as low as 50% under the revised rules.

Q: Who needs to approve these changes?
A: The proposals must be approved by both the European Parliament and the Council, which represents EU member governments.

Source: Investing.com