Morgan Stanley: Hormuz Tanker Traffic Nears Zero

Drastic Revision in Hormuz Traffic Data

Morgan Stanley has significantly lowered its estimates for tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, reporting that daily transits have fallen to near zero. The investment bank cited severe data degradation from AIS disruption for the revision, noting that on March 12, no crude, refined product, or LNG tankers exited the strait.

Overview of the Situation

Normally, approximately 35 vessels transit the strait daily. The new estimates from Morgan Stanley show a drop of between 85% and 95% in traffic, with current flows at 0-2 vessels per day. This disruption occurs as The Wall Street Journal reports the Pentagon is moving a Marine expeditionary unit to the Middle East, with the U.S. Navy considering vessel escorts.

Impact on Global Oil Markets

The severe curtailment of traffic is affecting global energy supplies. Saudi Arabia has reportedly cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day. Consequently, China’s Sinopec, the world's largest refiner, plans to reduce its throughput by more than 10% due to crude shortages, according to Reuters sources.

Summary and Outlook

Morgan Stanley stated the revised figures do not materially alter market implications, as Hormuz flows remain drastically reduced. The bank plans to continue publishing its daily tracker while the market monitors for potential military intervention to secure the critical shipping lane.

FAQ

Q: Why did Morgan Stanley revise its Hormuz transit estimates?
A: The bank revised its data following a full review which revealed elevated levels of AIS disruption and spoofing, making vessel position data increasingly noisy and unreliable.

Q: How much has traffic in the Strait of Hormuz decreased?
A: Traffic has plummeted by 85% to 95%, with current estimates at 0-2 vessels per day compared to a normal of approximately 35 vessels.

Source: Investing.com